After a volatile week, with the FED, BOE, RBA and US Jobs out of the way, all eyes are on US Inflation and on central bankers once again. The Jobs do not change the overall narrative of moderate Q2 growth and still elevated inflation. While it is still difficult to determine the degree to which the tightening is impacting the financial markets, the economy transitions out of the pandemic amid ongoing supply chain bottleneck disruptions.
Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.
Monday – 09 May 2022
Trade Balance (CNY, GMT 03:00) – April’s Trade Balance for exports and imports are likely to show a rise at 50.65 bln, as imports contracted by -3% y/y and exports grow only 3.2% y/y from 14.7% y/y.
FOMC Member Bostic Speech
BoE MPC Member Saunders Speech
Tuesday – 10 May 2022
Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – May’s German ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have declined at -40.4 from -41 while Eurozone’s at -41 from -43. The negative readings indicate that pessimism over the outlook is dominating with far fewer respondents taking a positive view on the current situation or the outlook. The ZEW institute said the assessment is equally negative as at the start of the pandemic. Inflation expectations improved somewhat, but the ZEW still flagged ongoing stagflation risks.
FOMC Member Waller and Mester Speeches
Wednesday – 11 May 2022
Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – April’s Chinese CPI is expected to fall by -0.6% m/m from 0.0% m/m while the headline should held unchanged at 1.5%. PPI should grow by 6.5% y/y from 8.3% last month.
ECB President Christine Lagarde Speech
Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – April should present gains of 0.2% for the CPI headline and 0.4% for the core, following gains of 1.2% and 0.3% respectively in March. CPI gasoline prices look poised to drop -8% in April. We’ve seen a big pullback in energy prices since the March boost from the war in Ukraine, though we may see ongoing support for core prices from the lockdowns in Shanghai and the associated disruption to global trade. As-expected April CPI figures would result in a 8.0% y/y increase, following last month’s 40-year high of 8.5%. Core prices should rise 6.0%, following last month’s 40-year high y/y gain of 6.5%. The base effect boost to the y/y figures peaked around February before reversing course, and the massive price gains in March left most y/y measures at peaks in that month, before the unwind now into Q2.
Thursday – 12 May 2022
Manufacturing Production & GDP (GBP, GMT 07:00) – A plethora of data from the UK should show a continued slowdown. MP should decline to -0.5% in March while prelim. GDP for Q1 is seen at 1% q/q from 1.3% q/q. The sharp rise in the cost of living wasn’t really improved by the latest budget and the risk that consumption will be hit in coming months is adding to the problems for the manufacturing sector that continues to struggle with supply chain disruptions and of course the sharp rise in energy prices.
Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – April’s PPI expected at 0.4% for the headline and 0.7% for the core, following respective gains of 1.4% and 1.0% in March. As expected readings would result in the y/y headline PPI metric easing to 10.6% from an all-time high of 11.2%. The headline y/y metric likely peaked in March given oil price declines into April following the big March boost from the war in Ukraine, alongside easier comparisons. More generally, the massive PPI climb since the start of 2021 exceeded the uptrend in headline and core CPI data, and both sets of gains have chased outsized increases in the trade price measures, alongside ongoing supply constraints, and now resumed lockdowns in Shanghai, that have provided a powerful lift for the inflation indexes.
Friday – 13 May 2022
Import and Export prices Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – Import and export prices are expected to both rise 0.6% in April, after March gains of 2.6% for imports and 4.5% for exports. Ex-petroleum import prices are expected to rise 1.2%, while ex-agriculture export prices grow 0.4%. Oil prices are easing in April after a March surge driven by the war in Ukraine. Dollar gains since May of 2021 have capped price increases into 2022, following a downtrend in the value of the Dollar through 2020 and early 2021.
Michigan Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary Michigan sentiment report is expected to reveal headline drop to 63.8 from 65.2 in May, leaving the measure at 11-year low.
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