First we had Lagarde’s call for higher rates.
Then we had Schnabel lay out the case for being more aggressive
Now we have an ‘ECB sources’ report doing the rounds saying officials increasingly see main refi rate rising above zero this year.
The marching orders have been delivered. The ECB is tired of waiting around for inflation to fall on its own and will be hiking at least twice this year.
Normally this would be scope for the euro to rally — and that may yet be the case — but the growth trajectory is so poor in Europe and looming (in 2024, likely) return of fiscal rules makes it a tough place to invest.
The ECB communication offensive continues, this time with a ‘sources’ report
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