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RBA Statement on Monetary Policy says further rate increases are needed

By 2 Mins Read

Earlier in the week we had the first RBA cash rate hike for over 11 years:

RBA raises cash rate by 25 bps to 0.35%
A cheeky move by the RBA helps to lift the aussie
RBA’s Lowe: Expects that further rate hikes will be necessary in the months ahead
RBA’s Lowe: A more normal level of rates would be 2.50%

Since then we have had some updated analyst forecasts:

Goldman Sachs is forecasting the RBA cash rate at 2.6% by the end of 2022
Westpac forecast a 40bp cash rate hike from the RBA on June 7

Headlines from today’s SoMP via Reuters:

further increases in interest rates needed to restrain inflation
sharply raises inflation forecasts, sees core inflation above 2-3% band until 2024
says appropriate to start normalising interest rates
says inflation pressures broadening due to supply chain bottlenecks, strong demand
says more firms expect materially higher wage costs, difficulty in finding workers
says the economy has been more resilient than expected, nearer to full employment
forecasts trimmed mean inflation at 4.6% Dec 2022, 3.1% Dec 2023, 2.9% June 2024
forecasts CPI inflation at 5.9% Dec 2022, 3.1% Dec 2023, 2.9% June 2024
forecasts unemployment 3.7% Dec 2022, 3.6% Dec 2023, 3.6% June 2024
forecasts wage growth 3.0% Dec 2022, 3.5% Dec 2023, 3.7% June 2024
forecasts gdp growth 4.2% Dec 2022, 2.0% Dec 2023, 2.0% June 2024
forecasts assume cash rate of 1.75% Dec 2022, 2.5% Dec 2023
says outlook for business/govt investment positive but constrained by capacity, supply chains
says Australia terms of trade to reach new peak in mid-2022, stay high for longer
says Australian dollar around where it was at start of year despite

Check out the core inflation forecasts – to stay above the top of the target band ( 2 to 3%) for a good time to come (out to December 2023 … which didn’t quite make it into the box I drew …. sorry ’bout that!)

But … the range of forecasts show it could be MUCH higher (and therefore more rate hikes if so):

Full text:

Statement on Monetary Policy– May 2022

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