Brief notes from some analysts coverage of OPEC
The market is concerned that Europe will struggle to replace the 3.2mb/d it imports from Russia, as it looks to impose a ban over the next six months.
OPEC seems unable to cover the losses. At its monthly meeting overnight, it ratified a small monthly production increase (400kb/d). The reality is thought that it is struggling to raise output, with Bloomberg data showing production rose by only 10kb/d in April.
Kuwaiti oil minister, Mohammed Alfares, said the group remained concerned about weaker demand in China and the prospects of weaker economic growth due to rising interest rates. It also sees no shortage stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war, and raised its forecast of a surplus by 600kb/d to 1.9mb/d.
OPEC+ meeting yesterday. The group agreed to stick to its current production plan, which would see them increasing output by 432Mbbls/d in June. This means that OPEC+ are allowed to produce 42.56MMbbls/d in June, which is unlikely to be hit, given that the group produced a little over 38MMbbls/d in March, according to IEA numbers. The group is struggling to hit output quotas due to disruptions and a lack of investment in fields. Lagging production is unlikely to change anytime soon, particularly given the weaker demand for Russian oil, which will eventually lead to output decreasing.
Also, I posted earlier on:
The US administration has announced that it plans to start refilling its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)