US April non-farm payrolls +428K vs +391K expected
Canada April employment 15.3K vs. 55.0 K estimate
Fed’s Barkin wants to raise rates as ‘fast as feasible’
Kashkari: The Fed must follow through on its forward guidance ‘at a minimum’
Fed’s Kashkari: We have to do our best to achieve our dual mandate
ECB’s Elderson: Weaker incoming data don’t suggest so far that we’re entering recession
Baker Hughes oil rig count rises by 5 to 557 in the current week
Gold up $7 to $1883WTI crude up $2.34 to $110.60US 10-year yields up 5 bps to 3.12%EUR leads, CAD lagsS&P 500 down 23 points to 4123 — first streak of 5 weekly losses since 2011
The non-farm payrolls report was right down the fairway. Jobs were a bit high but unemployment a tad disappointing. The main focus was on avg earnings and those were a fraction below consenus. That led to a brief dip in USD/JPY and short-dated yields but it didn’t last.
Instead, it was equities and deleveraging taking over once again. A swoon in stocks and bonds and several fledgling rallies lent some support to the dollar but the FX market was largely sidelined in this episode. Cable skidded along the bottom near 1.2340, as did the Australian dollar.
The loonie came under some selling pressure and USD/CAD rose above 1.2900 but couldn’t get above last week’s high of 1.2914 and there was some selling as risk trades made a bit of a stand late and oil — once again — found a bid.
In all those noise, the resilience in crude may be a true slgnal. Oil closed the week above $110 to end a series of lower highs in what looks like a break from the wedge. That it could make the move in such a dicey market adds credence to the break. Natural gas though reversed on Friday to $8 after touching $9.
In Europe, the EU continues to debate a ban on Russian oil but Hungary might block it; there’s talk of giving them an 18-month timeline. Slovakia is also looking for an exception. There isn’t much chatter on the Iran nuclear front.
In USD/JPY, the pair added 42 pips on the day but it was all in Asia and we stayed within the range in New York trade. However it was the ninth week in a row of gains for the pair in what’s been an absolute screamer of a trend trade.
Have a great weekend.