US major indices closing the day with mixed results
US 10 year yield finds support near 200 hour MA
More from Mester: MBS sales could mean losses for central bank
Fed’s Mester: Would need to see compelling slowdown of inflation before slowing rate rises
Crude oil settles at $99.76
Fed’s Waller: We think we can raise rates and not have a big impact on unemployment
Bitcoin moves towards key swing area support
US sells 3-year notes at 2.809% vs 2.812% WI
Fed’s Mester: The hiking pace we’re going now seems about right
WHO tells China it’s time to shift away from covid-zero policy
ECB’s Nagel sees ‘disturbing trend’ that inflation is gaining momentum
Fed’s Mester: I think we will need to go beyond neutral
Fed’s Williams: 50 bps hikes at next two meetings ‘make sense’ as base case
Fed’s Barkin: When we get to neutral, we can decide if we have to put the brakes on
“The world is running out of energy capacity”
The CAD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day
More from the Fed’s Williams: I don’t know what Fed funds rate will be mid next year
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Tentative risk bounce
Fed’s Williams: Will move expeditiously to bring rates back to more normal levels
US April NFIB small business optimism index 93.2 vs 93.2 prior
The USD is ending the day as the strongest of the major currencies today in what was an up and down and up type of trading day for the greenback. The NZD is the weakest as markets are still wary about risk on flows.
The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies
There was little in the way of economic data. There was some Fed speak with members still looking to get rates to neutral as fast as possible with hopes that the cushion from strong employment will lead to a bending but not breaking (i.e. a soft landing).
The problem is the Fed lost credibility with there insistence that stimulation was still needed even while inflationary pressures were building. Why should the market trust the Fed going forward? Why believe they can maneuver and reach a soft landing?
Tomorrow CPI data will be released. The market is expecting a move lower from last months 8.5% for the headline and 6.5% for ex food and energy. The expectations are for 8.1% and 6.0% respectively. The market will look for surprises and react accordingly,, but it still may be hard to reverse the market trends of late.
The dollar moved modestly higher despite a move lower in yields.
2 year yield 2.612%, -0.8 bps
5 year 2.913%, -7.0 bps
10 year 2.997%, -8.2 bps
30 year 3.131%, -7.7 bps
In the stock market, the markets were mixed with the Nasdaq up nearly 1% while the Dow fell and the S&P was marginally higher. The final numbers show:
Dow fell -84.96 points or -0.26% at 32160.75
S&P rose 9.81 points or 0.25% at 4001.04
Nasdaq rose 114.43 points or 0.98% at 11737.68
Russell 2000 fell -0.29 points or -0.02% at 1761.78
Bitcoin is trading at $31062 after trading as low as $29731 today – the lowest level since July 20, 2021.There is some trouble in the derivative stablecoins that can be blamed for some of the declines, but overall investors are taking on losses in a lot of “asset markets” (bonds, stock and even Bitcoin).
Although some people want to think of bitcoin as the new safe haven gold, the new global currency, etc. the price is down -33% YTD and -35.7% from the end of March high. In comparison, the Nasdaq is down around -19.7% from it’s end of March high.
In other markets:
Gold fell -16.14 or -0.87% to $1837.81
Silver fell -$0.50 or -2.31% at $21.26
Crude oil continued it’s move to the downside after trading above $111.00 last week. It is trading at $99.20 down -$3.87 on the day.
Good fortune with your trading.
