Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester is saying: Will need to see compelling a slowdown of inflation before slowing Fed rate increases inflation risks can skewed to the upside and argument for doing more upfront after have point increases in June and July, Fed will have to see what more is needed based on a data in the meantime Expects PCE inflation might be back to around 2.5% in 2023 Tomorrow, the CPI data in the US will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The expectations are for the headline on the month to rise by 0.2% and the core ex food and energy to rise by 0.4%. Year on year the headline is expected to dip from 8.5% to 8.1% while the ex food and energy is expected to fall from 6.5% to 6.0%. A year ago, the MoM came in at +0.8%. With the expectations at 0.2%. The decline from 8.5% to 8.1% has the potential to be lower. If you were to add the MoM over the last 12 months (see numbers on the chart below), the total of the MoM digits comes in at 8.3%. If you were to replace 0.2% for 0.8% this month (the expected rise this month), the sum of the monthly digits would come in at 7.7% well below the 8.1% estimate. There seems to be room for the possibility of a sub 8% YoY number for the headline number. MoM CPI numbers over the last 12 months
Fed’s Mester: Would need to see compelling slowdown of inflation before slowing rate rises
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